A funny thing happened this week on the path to a bipartisan deal to fund U.S. government operations and avoid a partial shutdown.
Conservatives in Congress – encouraged by tech multi-billionaire Elon Musk – hesitated.
Republicans tried to regroup Thursday afternoon, proposing a new, lighter program to finance the government. That vote failed, as 38 Republicans joined most Democrats in voting no.
All this political drama is just a taste of the chaos and unpredictability that could await us under unified Republican rule in Washington next year.
The man at the center of this week's drama holds no official title or role in government. What Elon Musk does have, however, are hundreds of billions of dollars, a social media megaphone, and the ear of not only the President of the United States, but also rank-and-file conservatives in Congress.
On Wednesday morning, the tech mogul took to X, which he bought for $44 billion two years ago, to disparage a compromise that Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson had reached with Democrats to temporarily fund U.S. government operations until mid-March.
As the number of his posts on the proposed deal reached triple digits, sometimes amplifying factually inaccurate claims made by conservative commentators, opposition to the legislation in Congress grew.
And on Wednesday night, Donald Trump — perhaps feeling he needed to get ahead of the growing conservative uprising — publicly declared that he, too, opposed the government funding bill.
He said it contained wasteful spending and Democratic priorities, while also demanding that Congress take the politically sensitive step of increasing — or even removing — the legal cap on newly issued U.S. debt that the U.S. would reach next summer.
Support for the interim spending bill subsequently collapsed, leaving Johnson and his leadership team scrambling to find an alternative path. In doing so, Musk celebrated by proclaiming that “the voice of the people has triumphed.”
It might be more accurate, however, to say that it was Musk's voice that triumphed.
On Thursday afternoon, Republicans unveiled a new proposal that suspended the debt ceiling for the first two years of Trump's second term, funded the government through March and provided disaster relief and other measures included in the initial financing plan.
But Musk's involvement might not please some lawmakers. Democrats in the House joked about “President Musk,” while even a few Republicans complained publicly.
“WHO?” Pennsylvania Republican Glenn Thompson responded when asked about Musk. “I don’t see him in the room.”
Musk may have been the instigator, but this latest congressional funding crisis reveals what has been — and will likely continue to be — an ongoing challenge to the narrow Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
For two years, Republicans in the House have struggled to maintain a united front in a party populated, at least in part, by politicians who actively despise the government they help run.
Internal divisions delayed Kevin McCarthy's election as House speaker in January 2022 and led to his impeachment – a first in American history – the following year. Johnson eventually replaced him, but only after weeks of leaderless limbo.
Some Republicans hoped that with Trump's election, members of their majority, which will become even smaller when the new Congress is sworn in next month, would be more willing to march in step in support of the new president's agenda. And some are.
“I think President Trump has laid out the plan pretty well, so I don't know what the discussions are about,” Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna told reporters after internal Republican meetings Thursday afternoon.
What this week revealed, however, is that the president-elect does not always provide the legislative branch with the clear and consistent direction it needs.
His insistence on raising the debt ceiling, for example, surprised many in his own party. And outside influences, such as those from Musk or others, could inject additional instability into the process.
If Republicans fail to achieve near unanimity in the House, they will have to find ways to win over Democrats if they want to achieve any legislative success. And what this week showed (once again) is that the kind of political compromise needed could lead to more Republican defections.
Trump's party will be challenged to govern alone, but it also may not be able to tolerate governing with Democratic help.
If there is no political balance in the House, it would jeopardize Trump's most ambitious legislative priorities before he even takes office.
Republicans could still find a way to avoid a lengthy government shutdown with a temporary budget resolution, even if Trump's first round of lobbying ended in an embarrassing failure to win enough support within his own party .
For Johnson, however, the damage may already be done. His authority over House Republicans was undermined — first by Musk and then by Trump — just weeks before he was set to run for re-election as House speaker.
One Republican, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, has already said he would not support Johnson's re-election. Others, including members of Johnson's management team, have been evasive. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Georgia congresswoman who unsuccessfully pushed to impeach Johnson in May, suggested Musk become president.
Meanwhile, Trump – the only man who could give Johnson a lifeline – was equivocal, telling Fox News that Johnson could “easily” remain president if he “acts decisively and decisively.”
However, the decision may not be enough when each direction seems to lead to a dead end.
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